NFL 2025 Season Week 6

TB defeat SF 30-19

TB defeated SF 30-19. TB generated +14.7 EPA (+0.294 per play) vs SF's -5.7 EPA (-0.085 per play). The defining moment: B.Mayfield to T.Johnson, 45-yard TD (Q3, 17:49).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: B.Mayfield to T.Johnson, 45-yard TD (Q3, 17:49) turning point
✅
Key advantage: TB generated +14.7 EPA (+0.294 per play) vs SF's -5.7 EPA (-0.085 per play) why winner won
❌
Key failure: SF failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) why loser lost

TB defeated SF 30-19. TB generated +14.7 EPA (+0.294 per play) vs SF's -5.7 EPA (-0.085 per play).

The defining moment: B.Mayfield to T.Johnson, 45-yard TD (Q3, 17:49).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

B.Mayfield to T.Johnson, 45-yard TD (Q3, 17:49). TB's win probability jumped from 66.9% to 82.6% — a 15.7 percentage point swing.

Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while leading by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

SF 10-play, 84-yard drive (4:44) ending in touchdown (Q1, 00:02). SF's win probability moved from 35.4% to 56.9% — a 21.4 percentage point shift over 10 plays.

SF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.147): (15:00) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards (25-J.Parrish).

Key play (WPA +0.055): (10:22) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 4 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TB, who gained 18.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 15.7 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.

momentum timeline

✅ Why TB Won

TB won 30-19 on the strength of 5 key factors: • TB generated +14.7 EPA (+0.294 per play) vs SF's -5.7 EPA (-0.085 per play) • TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs SF's -2 • TB passing EPA: +12.1 vs SF: -4.4.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for SF

SF lost 19-30. What went wrong: • SF failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) • SF allowed 6 sacks • SF committed 2 turnovers (2 INTs, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: SF 10-play, 84-yard drive (4:44) ending in touchdown (Q1, 00:02). The moment that decided it: B.Mayfield to T.Johnson, 45-yard TD (Q3, 17:49).

Final score: TB 30-19.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

TB Play #2869 Drive #8 epa advantage turnover margin passing advantage third down failures pressure allowed turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.