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NFL 2025 Season Week 18

NE rout MIA 38-10

NE dominated MIA 38-10. NE generated +19.4 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs MIA's -18.6 EPA (-0.344 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: Q.Ewers intercepted (Q3, 26:44) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: NE generated +19.4 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs MIA's -18.6 EPA (-0.344 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: MIA failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost

NE dominated MIA 38-10. NE generated +19.4 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs MIA's -18.6 EPA (-0.344 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

Q.Ewers intercepted (Q3, 26:44). MIA's win probability dropped from 36.0% to 20.5% — a 15.5 percentage point swing.

Gave NE the ball and ended MIA's threat while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

NE 3-play, 70-yard drive (1:46) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). NE's win probability moved from 54.6% to 69.9% — a 15.3 percentage point shift over 3 plays.

NE took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.097): (14:07) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible.

38-R.Stevenson left guard pushed ob at MIA 5 for 56 ya.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 4 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who gained 35.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 15.5 percentage points, caused by a interception.

momentum timeline

✅ Why NE Won

NE won 38-10 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NE generated +19.4 EPA (+0.360 per play) vs MIA's -18.6 EPA (-0.344 per play) • NE had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -2 • NE rushing EPA: +10.6 vs MIA: -8.5.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for MIA

MIA lost 10-38. What went wrong: • MIA failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) • MIA generated -18.6 EPA (-0.344 per play) • MIA committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: NE 3-play, 70-yard drive (1:46) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: Q.Ewers intercepted (Q3, 26:44).

Final score: NE 38-10.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

NE Play #2226 Drive #1 epa advantage turnover margin rushing advantage third down failures offensive inefficiency turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.