NFL 2025 Season Week 15

DEN defeat GB 34-26

DEN defeated GB 34-26. DEN passing EPA: +20.6 vs GB: -0.5. The defining moment: GB pass (Q4, 12:26).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: GB pass (Q4, 12:26) turning point
✅
Key advantage: DEN passing EPA: +20.6 vs GB: -0.5 why winner won
❌
Key failure: GB committed 2 turnovers (2 INTs, 0 fumbles lost) why loser lost

DEN defeated GB 34-26. DEN passing EPA: +20.6 vs GB: -0.5.

The defining moment: GB pass (Q4, 12:26).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

GB pass (Q4, 12:26). GB's win probability jumped from 32.1% to 48.4% — a 16.4 percentage point swing.

A key completion sustained the drive while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

DEN 10-play, 70-yard drive (5:52) ending in touchdown (Q2, 14:11). DEN's win probability moved from 33.0% to 51.8% — a 18.8 percentage point shift over 10 plays.

DEN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.116): (8:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 83-M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.078): (10:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to GB 27 for 15 yards (55-K.Enagbare). Key play (WPA +0.051): (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin to DEN 29 for 9 yards (25-K.Nixon; 20-J.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DEN, who gained 40.0 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 16.4 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.

momentum timeline

✅ Why DEN Won

DEN won 34-26 on the strength of 4 key factors: • DEN passing EPA: +20.6 vs GB: -0.5 • DEN had a +1 turnover margin (2 forced, 1 committed) vs GB's -1 • DEN generated +10.5 EPA (+0.164 per play) vs GB's +1.4 EPA (+0.022 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for GB

GB lost 26-34. What went wrong: • GB committed 2 turnovers (2 INTs, 0 fumbles lost) • GB allowed 3 sacks • GB forced only 1 turnover while DEN forced 2.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: DEN 10-play, 70-yard drive (5:52) ending in touchdown (Q2, 14:11). The moment that decided it: GB pass (Q4, 12:26).

Final score: DEN 34-26.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

DEN Play #3426 Drive #5 passing advantage turnover margin epa advantage turnovers committed pressure allowed failed to force turnovers

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.