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NFL 2025 Season Week 17

DEN hold off KC 20-13

DEN held off KC 20-13. DEN generated +6.8 EPA (+0.097 per play) vs KC's -8.2 EPA (-0.199 per play). The defining moment: DEN pass (Q4, 5:52).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: DEN pass (Q4, 5:52) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: DEN generated +6.8 EPA (+0.097 per play) vs KC's -8.2 EPA (-0.199 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: KC failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) why loser lost

DEN held off KC 20-13. DEN generated +6.8 EPA (+0.097 per play) vs KC's -8.2 EPA (-0.199 per play).

The defining moment: DEN pass (Q4, 5:52).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

DEN pass (Q4, 5:52). DEN's win probability jumped from 46.0% to 61.5% — a 15.5 percentage point swing.

A key completion sustained the drive while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

DEN 14-play, 65-yard drive (6:18) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:03). DEN's win probability moved from 47.4% to 89.8% — a 42.5 percentage point shift over 14 plays.

DEN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.155): (5:52) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-L.Humphrey to KC 28 for 17 yards (6-B.Cook) [95-C.

Key play (WPA +0.122): (1:50) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner]. Key play (WPA +0.114): (2:00) (Shotgun) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible.

PENALTY on KC-95-C.Jones, Neutral Zone Infractio.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DEN, who lost 27.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 15.5 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.

momentum timeline

✅ Why DEN Won

DEN won 20-13 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DEN generated +6.8 EPA (+0.097 per play) vs KC's -8.2 EPA (-0.199 per play) • DEN converted 11/18 third downs (61%) vs KC's 4/11 (36%) • DEN passing EPA: +2.9 vs KC: -8.4.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for KC

KC lost 13-20. What went wrong: • KC failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) • KC's defense allowed DEN to score on 4/8 drives (50%) • KC passing attack generated -8.4 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: DEN 14-play, 65-yard drive (6:18) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:03). The moment that decided it: DEN pass (Q4, 5:52).

Final score: DEN 20-13.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

DEN Play #3092 Drive #14 epa advantage third down efficiency passing advantage third down failures defensive leakage passing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.