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NFL 2025 Season Week 18

NYG pull away from DAL 34-17

NYG pulled away from DAL 34-17. NYG generated +9.4 EPA (+0.135 per play) vs DAL's -6.9 EPA (-0.130 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 55:06) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: NYG generated +9.4 EPA (+0.135 per play) vs DAL's -6.9 EPA (-0.130 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: DAL failed on 6/8 third downs (25% conversion rate) why loser lost

NYG pulled away from DAL 34-17. NYG generated +9.4 EPA (+0.135 per play) vs DAL's -6.9 EPA (-0.130 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 55:06). DAL's win probability dropped from 50.1% to 35.3% — a 14.8 percentage point swing.

Turnover gave NYG possession while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

NYG 11-play, 96-yard drive (2:29) ending in touchdown (Q2, 02:49). NYG's win probability moved from 48.3% to 69.5% — a 21.2 percentage point shift over 11 plays.

NYG took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.120): (:31) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Houston].

Key play (WPA +0.065): (1:21) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left end pushed ob at NYG 31 for 5 yards (59-K.Murray). PENALTY on DAL-5 Key play (WPA +0.059): (1:07) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 80-G.Olszewski to DAL 23 for 23 yards (27-R.Steward).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NYG, who gained 27.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why NYG Won

NYG won 34-17 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NYG generated +9.4 EPA (+0.135 per play) vs DAL's -6.9 EPA (-0.130 per play) • NYG converted 8/14 third downs (57%) vs DAL's 2/8 (25%) • NYG passing EPA: +8.3 vs DAL: -6.2.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for DAL

DAL lost 17-34. What went wrong: • DAL failed on 6/8 third downs (25% conversion rate) • DAL's defense allowed NYG to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • DAL committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: NYG 11-play, 96-yard drive (2:29) ending in touchdown (Q2, 02:49). The moment that decided it: D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 55:06).

Final score: NYG 34-17.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

NYG Play #343 Drive #9 epa advantage third down efficiency passing advantage third down failures defensive leakage turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.