DAL pull away from LV 33-16
DAL pulled away from LV 33-16. DAL passing EPA: +8.6 vs LV: -14.2.
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 54:20) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DAL passing EPA: +8.6 vs LV: -14.2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: LV failed on 9/12 third downs (25% conversion rate) why loser lost
DAL pulled away from LV 33-16. DAL passing EPA: +8.6 vs LV: -14.2.
⚡ The Turning Point
D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 54:20). DAL's win probability dropped from 41.5% to 28.0% — a 13.5 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave LV possession while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
DAL 6-play, 68-yard drive (2:11) ending in touchdown (Q1, 02:02). DAL's win probability moved from 34.3% to 55.3% — a 21.0 percentage point shift over 6 plays.
DAL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.097): (14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.057): (1:30) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to LV 34 for 15 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao.
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DAL, who lost 24.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why DAL Won
DAL won 33-16 on the strength of 4 key factors: • DAL passing EPA: +8.6 vs LV: -14.2 • DAL generated +8.2 EPA (+0.134 per play) vs LV's -12.4 EPA (-0.218 per play) • DAL converted 4/9 third downs (44%) vs LV's 3/12 (25%).
❌ What Went Wrong for LV
LV lost 16-33. What went wrong: • LV failed on 9/12 third downs (25% conversion rate) • LV passing attack generated -14.2 EPA • LV generated -12.4 EPA (-0.218 per play).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: DAL 6-play, 68-yard drive (2:11) ending in touchdown (Q1, 02:02). The moment that decided it: D.Prescott fumble lost (Q1, 54:20).
Final score: DAL 33-16.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.