Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 4

DEN rout CIN 28-3

DEN dominated CIN 28-3. DEN generated +17.2 EPA (+0.224 per play) vs CIN's -10.8 EPA (-0.256 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: CIN pass (Q1, 57:33) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: DEN generated +17.2 EPA (+0.224 per play) vs CIN's -10.8 EPA (-0.256 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: CIN failed on 9/11 third downs (18% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

DEN dominated CIN 28-3. DEN generated +17.2 EPA (+0.224 per play) vs CIN's -10.8 EPA (-0.256 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

CIN pass (Q1, 57:33). CIN's win probability jumped from 44.3% to 53.0% — a 8.7 percentage point swing.

A key completion sustained the drive while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

DEN 9-play, 64-yard drive (4:07) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:24). DEN's win probability moved from 53.6% to 69.4% — a 15.8 percentage point shift over 9 plays.

DEN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.081): (:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.079): (3:05) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 82-A.Trautman pushed ob at CIN 23 for 26 yards (44-D.Knight). Key play (WPA +0.055): (3:43) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to CIN 49 for 12 yards (28-J.Newton).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to DEN, who gained 23.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why DEN Won

DEN won 28-3 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DEN generated +17.2 EPA (+0.224 per play) vs CIN's -10.8 EPA (-0.256 per play) • DEN passing EPA: +13.3 vs CIN: -10.4 • DEN converted 8/13 third downs (62%) vs CIN's 2/11 (18%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for CIN

CIN lost 3-28. What went wrong: • CIN failed on 9/11 third downs (18% conversion rate) • CIN had only 1 explosive play (20+ yards) vs DEN's 5 • CIN generated -10.8 EPA (-0.256 per play).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: DEN 9-play, 64-yard drive (4:07) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:24). The moment that decided it: CIN pass (Q1, 57:33).

Final score: DEN 28-3.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

DEN Play #226 Drive #4 epa advantage passing advantage third down efficiency third down failures lack of explosiveness offensive inefficiency

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.