SF hold off ARI, win 16-15 on late field goal
SF edged ARI 16-15. SF scored on 5/10 drives (50%) vs ARI's 3/10 (30%). The defining moment: SF 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: SF 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF scored on 5/10 drives (50%) vs ARI's 3/10 (30%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: ARI failed on 10/15 third downs (33% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 3 lead changes momentum timeline
SF edged ARI 16-15. SF scored on 5/10 drives (50%) vs ARI's 3/10 (30%).
The defining moment: SF 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
⚡ The Turning Point
SF 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04). SF's win probability jumped from 57.4% to 100.0% — a 42.6 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SF 10-play, 63-yard drive (1:46) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:46). SF's win probability moved from 40.8% to 57.4% — a 66.3 percentage point shift over 10 plays.
SF added points with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.426): (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Key play (WPA +0.142): (:25) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to ARI 16 for 20 yards (27-A.Davis-Gait Key play (WPA -0.071): (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep left.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 3 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who gained 14.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 42.6 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 16-15 on the strength of 1 key factor: • SF scored on 5/10 drives (50%) vs ARI's 3/10 (30%).
❌ What Went Wrong for ARI
ARI lost 15-16. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 10/15 third downs (33% conversion rate) • ARI's defense allowed SF to score on 5/10 drives (50%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SF 10-play, 63-yard drive (1:46) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:46). The moment that decided it: SF 35-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Final score: SF 16-15.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.