SF hold off NO 26-21
SF held off NO 26-21. SF passing EPA: +2.9 vs NO: -7.5. The defining moment: S.Rattler fumble lost (Q3, 16:44).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: S.Rattler fumble lost (Q3, 16:44) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF passing EPA: +2.9 vs NO: -7.5 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NO failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) why loser lost
SF held off NO 26-21. SF passing EPA: +2.9 vs NO: -7.5.
The defining moment: S.Rattler fumble lost (Q3, 16:44).
⚡ The Turning Point
S.Rattler fumble lost (Q3, 16:44). NO's win probability dropped from 43.1% to 24.9% — a 18.3 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave SF possession while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SF 14-play, 80-yard drive (7:56) ending in touchdown (Q1, 11:21). SF's win probability moved from 48.2% to 65.7% — a 17.4 percentage point shift over 14 plays.
SF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.082): (9:20) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 1-R.Pearsall to SF 44 for 15 yards (27-I.Yiadom).
Key play (WPA +0.061): (7:53) 23-C.McCaffrey right tackle to NO 37 for 7 yards (96-C.Granderson). Key play (WPA +0.059): (3:32) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who lost 30.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 18.3 percentage points, caused by a fumble.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 26-21 on the strength of 4 key factors: • SF passing EPA: +2.9 vs NO: -7.5 • SF converted 8/14 third downs (57%) vs NO's 4/11 (36%) • SF generated +3.1 EPA (+0.048 per play) vs NO's -5.2 EPA (-0.078 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for NO
NO lost 21-26. What went wrong: • NO failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) • NO's defense allowed SF to score on 5/11 drives (46%) • NO allowed 3 sacks.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SF 14-play, 80-yard drive (7:56) ending in touchdown (Q1, 11:21). The moment that decided it: S.Rattler fumble lost (Q3, 16:44).
Final score: SF 26-21.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.