NE hold off TB 28-23
NE held off TB 28-23. NE generated +10.3 EPA (+0.178 per play) vs TB's +3.0 EPA (+0.044 per play). The defining moment: TB fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:55).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: TB fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:55) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: NE generated +10.3 EPA (+0.178 per play) vs TB's +3.0 EPA (+0.044 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TB failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost
NE held off TB 28-23. NE generated +10.3 EPA (+0.178 per play) vs TB's +3.0 EPA (+0.044 per play).
The defining moment: TB fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:55).
⚡ The Turning Point
TB fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:55). TB's win probability dropped from 27.1% to 5.7% — a 21.4 percentage point swing.
Ended the drive and handed field position to NE while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
NE 14-play, 78-yard drive (7:16) ending in touchdown (Q2, 07:16). NE's win probability moved from 41.3% to 61.6% — a 20.3 percentage point shift over 14 plays.
NE took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.163): (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.090): (2:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to TB 14 for 26 yards (98-A.Nelson). Key play (WPA +0.074): (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins to TB 43 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who lost 27.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 21.4 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.
✅ Why NE Won
NE won 28-23 on the strength of 2 key factors: • NE generated +10.3 EPA (+0.178 per play) vs TB's +3.0 EPA (+0.044 per play) • NE passing EPA: +6.3 vs TB: +1.0.
❌ What Went Wrong for TB
TB lost 23-28. What went wrong: • TB failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: NE 14-play, 78-yard drive (7:16) ending in touchdown (Q2, 07:16). The moment that decided it: TB fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:55).
Final score: NE 28-23.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.