SF survive SEA scare, win 17-13 after late fumble
SF held off SEA 17-13. SF passing EPA: +13.3 vs SEA: -10.0. The defining moment: S.Darnold fumble lost (Q4, 0:42).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: S.Darnold fumble lost (Q4, 0:42) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF passing EPA: +13.3 vs SEA: -10.0 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: SEA failed on 7/10 third downs (30% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 5 lead changes momentum timeline
SF held off SEA 17-13. SF passing EPA: +13.3 vs SEA: -10.0.
The defining moment: S.Darnold fumble lost (Q4, 0:42).
⚡ The Turning Point
S.Darnold fumble lost (Q4, 0:42). SEA's win probability dropped from 59.9% to 6.2% — a 53.7 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave SF possession while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SF 7-play, 68-yard drive (1:50) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:24). SF's win probability moved from 30.7% to 72.5% — a 41.9 percentage point shift over 7 plays.
SF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.254): (2:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (8-C.Bryant Key play (WPA +0.142): (1:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-D.Hall].
Key play (WPA +0.074): (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges to SEA 11 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones) [99-L.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 5 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who lost 53.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 53.7 percentage points, caused by a fumble.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 17-13 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SF passing EPA: +13.3 vs SEA: -10.0 • SF generated +7.9 EPA (+0.112 per play) vs SEA's -13.0 EPA (-0.265 per play) • SF converted 7/14 third downs (50%) vs SEA's 3/10 (30%).
❌ What Went Wrong for SEA
SEA lost 13-17. What went wrong: • SEA failed on 7/10 third downs (30% conversion rate) • SEA committed 2 turnovers (0 INTs, 2 fumbles lost) • SEA generated -13.0 EPA (-0.265 per play).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SF 7-play, 68-yard drive (1:50) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:24). The moment that decided it: S.Darnold fumble lost (Q4, 0:42).
Final score: SF 17-13.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.