SEA defeat JAX 20-12
SEA defeated JAX 20-12. SEA scored on 2/3 red zone trips (67%) vs JAX's 0/0 (0%). The defining moment: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 61-yard TD (Q2, 38:42).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 61-yard TD (Q2, 38:42) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SEA scored on 2/3 red zone trips (67%) vs JAX's 0/0 (0%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: JAX failed on 12/16 third downs (25% conversion rate) why loser lost
SEA defeated JAX 20-12. SEA scored on 2/3 red zone trips (67%) vs JAX's 0/0 (0%).
The defining moment: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 61-yard TD (Q2, 38:42).
⚡ The Turning Point
S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 61-yard TD (Q2, 38:42). SEA's win probability jumped from 43.6% to 60.8% — a 17.2 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
SEA 1-play, 61-yard drive (0:08) ending in touchdown (Q2, 08:42). SEA's win probability moved from 43.6% to 61.1% — a 17.5 percentage point shift over 1 plays.
SEA took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.172): (8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 3 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SEA, who lost 29.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 17.2 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why SEA Won
SEA won 20-12 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SEA scored on 2/3 red zone trips (67%) vs JAX's 0/0 (0%) • SEA generated 7 sacks and 13 QB hits vs JAX's 1 sacks and 4 QB hits • SEA passing EPA: +10.5 vs JAX: -0.4.
❌ What Went Wrong for JAX
JAX lost 12-20. What went wrong: • JAX failed on 12/16 third downs (25% conversion rate) • JAX allowed 7 sacks • JAX went three-and-out 4 times, failing to sustain drives.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: SEA 1-play, 61-yard drive (0:08) ending in touchdown (Q2, 08:42). The moment that decided it: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 61-yard TD (Q2, 38:42).
Final score: SEA 20-12.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.