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NFL 2025 Season Week 11

NE defeat NYJ 27-14

NE defeated NYJ 27-14. NE passing EPA: +12.2 vs NYJ: -8.2. The defining moment: NYJ run (Q1, 56:40).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: NYJ run (Q1, 56:40) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: NE passing EPA: +12.2 vs NYJ: -8.2 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NYJ had only 1 explosive play (20+ yards) vs NE's 5 why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

NE defeated NYJ 27-14. NE passing EPA: +12.2 vs NYJ: -8.2.

The defining moment: NYJ run (Q1, 56:40).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

NYJ run (Q1, 56:40). NYJ's win probability jumped from 44.4% to 53.0% — a 8.6 percentage point swing.

A rushing gain kept the drive alive while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

NYJ 14-play, 72-yard drive (8:04) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). NYJ's win probability moved from 43.3% to 61.4% — a 18.1 percentage point shift over 14 plays.

NYJ took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.086): (11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane).

NE- Key play (WPA +0.074): (8:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NE 6 for 10 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Key play (WPA +0.051): (9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who gained 37.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why NE Won

NE won 27-14 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NE passing EPA: +12.2 vs NYJ: -8.2 • NE scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs NYJ's 1/2 (50%) • NE generated +10.0 EPA (+0.167 per play) vs NYJ's -4.8 EPA (-0.085 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NYJ

NYJ lost 14-27. What went wrong: • NYJ had only 1 explosive play (20+ yards) vs NE's 5 • NYJ's defense allowed NE to score on 5/10 drives (50%) • NYJ passing attack generated -8.2 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: NYJ 14-play, 72-yard drive (8:04) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: NYJ run (Q1, 56:40).

Final score: NE 27-14.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

NE Play #181 Drive #1 passing advantage red zone efficiency epa advantage lack of explosiveness defensive leakage passing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.