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NFL 2025 Season Week 7
DEN hold off NYG, win 33-32 on late field goal

DEN hold off NYG, win 33-32 on late field goal

DEN edged NYG 33-32. DEN rushing EPA: +8.4 vs NYG: +0.2. The defining moment: DEN 39-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: DEN 39-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: DEN rushing EPA: +8.4 vs NYG: +0.2 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NYG failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline

DEN edged NYG 33-32. DEN rushing EPA: +8.4 vs NYG: +0.2.

The defining moment: DEN 39-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

DEN 39-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02). DEN's win probability jumped from 57.7% to 100.0% — a 42.3 percentage point swing.

Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

DEN 4-play, 56-yard drive (0:37) ending in field goal (Q4, 00:37). DEN's win probability moved from 31.0% to 100.0% — a 69.0 percentage point shift over 4 plays.

DEN took the lead with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.423): (:02) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

Key play (WPA +0.128): (:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to NYG 21 for 22 yards (2-D.Banks). Key play (WPA +0.112): (:18) (No Huddle) PENALTY on NYG-0-B.Burns, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 48 - N.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DEN, who gained 53.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 42.3 percentage points, caused by a field goal.

momentum timeline

✅ Why DEN Won

DEN won 33-32 on the strength of 4 key factors: • DEN rushing EPA: +8.4 vs NYG: +0.2 • DEN had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs NYG's -1 • DEN had 7 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NYG's 5.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NYG

NYG lost 32-33. What went wrong: • NYG failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • NYG allowed 4 sacks • NYG committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: DEN 4-play, 56-yard drive (0:37) ending in field goal (Q4, 00:37). The moment that decided it: DEN 39-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).

Final score: DEN 33-32.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

DEN Play #5100 Drive #25 rushing advantage turnover margin explosive plays third down failures pressure allowed turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.