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NFL 2025 Season Week 16

TEN pull away from KC 26-9

TEN pulled away from KC 26-9. TEN converted 9/16 third downs (56%) vs KC's 1/9 (11%).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: Safety against KC (Q2, 43:09) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: TEN converted 9/16 third downs (56%) vs KC's 1/9 (11%) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: KC failed on 8/9 third downs (11% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

TEN pulled away from KC 26-9. TEN converted 9/16 third downs (56%) vs KC's 1/9 (11%).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

Safety against KC (Q2, 43:09). KC's win probability dropped from 39.4% to 28.6% — a 10.8 percentage point swing.

Two points and possession change while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

TEN 11-play, 89-yard drive (6:03) ending in touchdown (Q2, 07:40). TEN's win probability moved from 58.0% to 75.0% — a 17.1 percentage point shift over 11 plays.

TEN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.058): (6:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 47 for 34 yards (6-B.Cook).

Key play (WPA +0.054): (4:46) (Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left guard to KC 34 for 11 yards (97-A.Gillotte).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to TEN, who gained 17.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why TEN Won

TEN won 26-9 on the strength of 5 key factors: • TEN converted 9/16 third downs (56%) vs KC's 1/9 (11%) • TEN passing EPA: +6.8 vs KC: -11.1 • TEN generated +3.0 EPA (+0.045 per play) vs KC's -13.4 EPA (-0.312 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for KC

KC lost 9-26. What went wrong: • KC failed on 8/9 third downs (11% conversion rate) • KC generated -13.4 EPA (-0.312 per play) • KC allowed 4 sacks.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: TEN 11-play, 89-yard drive (6:03) ending in touchdown (Q2, 07:40). The moment that decided it: Safety against KC (Q2, 43:09).

Final score: TEN 26-9.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

TEN Play #1172 Drive #10 third down efficiency passing advantage epa advantage third down failures offensive inefficiency pressure allowed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.