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NFL 2025 Season Week 13

BUF pull away from PIT 26-7

BUF pulled away from PIT 26-7. BUF generated +7.4 EPA (+0.100 per play) vs PIT's -18.2 EPA (-0.424 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q3, 29:54) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: BUF generated +7.4 EPA (+0.100 per play) vs PIT's -18.2 EPA (-0.424 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: PIT failed on 6/9 third downs (33% conversion rate) why loser lost

BUF pulled away from PIT 26-7. BUF generated +7.4 EPA (+0.100 per play) vs PIT's -18.2 EPA (-0.424 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q3, 29:54). PIT's win probability dropped from 69.6% to 45.2% — a 24.4 percentage point swing.

Turnover gave BUF possession while leading by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

PIT 1-play, 0-yard drive (0:16) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q3, 15:00). PIT's win probability moved from 69.6% to 55.1% — a 24.1 percentage point shift over 1 plays.

PIT's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.244): (14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible.

8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who lost 61.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 24.4 percentage points, caused by a fumble.

momentum timeline

✅ Why BUF Won

BUF won 26-7 on the strength of 5 key factors: • BUF generated +7.4 EPA (+0.100 per play) vs PIT's -18.2 EPA (-0.424 per play) • BUF passing EPA: +5.4 vs PIT: -11.9 • BUF scored on 4/4 red zone trips (100%) vs PIT's 1/2 (50%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for PIT

PIT lost 7-26. What went wrong: • PIT failed on 6/9 third downs (33% conversion rate) • PIT generated -18.2 EPA (-0.424 per play) • PIT committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: PIT 1-play, 0-yard drive (0:16) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q3, 15:00). The moment that decided it: A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q3, 29:54).

Final score: BUF 26-7.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

BUF Play #2066 Drive #11 epa advantage passing advantage red zone efficiency third down failures offensive inefficiency turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.