BUF hold off BAL, win 41-40 on late field goal
BUF edged BAL 41-40. BUF had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1. The defining moment: BUF 32-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: BUF 32-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: BUF had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: BAL's defense allowed BUF to score on 8/12 drives (67%) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline
BUF edged BAL 41-40. BUF had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1.
The defining moment: BUF 32-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
⚡ The Turning Point
BUF 32-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03). BUF's win probability jumped from 61.5% to 100.0% — a 38.5 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
BUF 9-play, 66-yard drive (1:26) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:26). BUF's win probability moved from 35.6% to 100.0% — a 75.4 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
BUF took the lead with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.385): (:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
Key play (WPA +0.197): (:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (23-J.Alexander). Key play (WPA +0.190): (:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer ran ob at BAL 34 for 32 yards (14-K.Hamilton.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who gained 56.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 38.5 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why BUF Won
BUF won 41-40 on the strength of 2 key factors: • BUF had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1 • BUF passing EPA: +14.3 vs BAL: +8.8.
❌ What Went Wrong for BAL
BAL lost 40-41. What went wrong: • BAL's defense allowed BUF to score on 8/12 drives (67%) • BAL committed 1 turnover (0 INTs, 1 fumble lost).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: BUF 9-play, 66-yard drive (1:26) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:26). The moment that decided it: BUF 32-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Final score: BUF 41-40.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.