CHI hold off NYG 24-20
CHI held off NYG 24-20. CHI rushing EPA: +7.7 vs NYG: -0.5. The defining moment: C.Williams 17-yard rushing TD (Q4, 1:54).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: C.Williams 17-yard rushing TD (Q4, 1:54) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: CHI rushing EPA: +7.7 vs NYG: -0.5 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NYG failed on 10/15 third downs (33% conversion rate) why loser lost
CHI held off NYG 24-20. CHI rushing EPA: +7.7 vs NYG: -0.5.
The defining moment: C.Williams 17-yard rushing TD (Q4, 1:54).
⚡ The Turning Point
C.Williams 17-yard rushing TD (Q4, 1:54). CHI's win probability jumped from 58.6% to 75.4% — a 16.8 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CHI 4-play, 53-yard drive (1:06) ending in touchdown (Q4, 02:53). CHI's win probability moved from 42.1% to 75.5% — a 33.5 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
CHI took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.168): (1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.133): (2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to CHI, who gained 39.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 16.8 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why CHI Won
CHI won 24-20 on the strength of 5 key factors: • CHI rushing EPA: +7.7 vs NYG: -0.5 • CHI generated 4 sacks and 8 QB hits vs NYG's 0 sacks and 3 QB hits • CHI had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs NYG's -1.
❌ What Went Wrong for NYG
NYG lost 20-24. What went wrong: • NYG failed on 10/15 third downs (33% conversion rate) • NYG allowed 4 sacks • NYG committed 1 turnover (0 INTs, 1 fumble lost).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CHI 4-play, 53-yard drive (1:06) ending in touchdown (Q4, 02:53). The moment that decided it: C.Williams 17-yard rushing TD (Q4, 1:54).
Final score: CHI 24-20.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.