TEN hold off ARI, win 22-21 on late field goal
TEN edged ARI 22-21. TEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs ARI's 3/4 (75%). The defining moment: TEN 29-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: TEN 29-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: TEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs ARI's 3/4 (75%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: ARI failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 1 lead change momentum timeline
TEN edged ARI 22-21. TEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs ARI's 3/4 (75%).
The defining moment: TEN 29-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
⚡ The Turning Point
TEN 29-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03). TEN's win probability jumped from 63.0% to 100.0% — a 37.0 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
TEN 11-play, 71-yard drive (1:53) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:53). TEN's win probability moved from 33.0% to 63.0% — a 73.4 percentage point shift over 11 plays.
TEN added points with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.370): (:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Key play (WPA +0.289): (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards. Key play (WPA +0.085): (:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 47 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 1 lead change and 4 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TEN, who lost 63.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 37.0 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why TEN Won
TEN won 22-21 on the strength of 4 key factors: • TEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs ARI's 3/4 (75%) • TEN scored on 5/13 drives (38%) vs ARI's 3/12 (25%) • ARI had 5 three-and-outs vs TEN's 3.
❌ What Went Wrong for ARI
ARI lost 21-22. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 9/16 third downs (44% conversion rate) • ARI committed 2 turnovers (0 INTs, 2 fumbles lost) • ARI went three-and-out 5 times, failing to sustain drives.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: TEN 11-play, 71-yard drive (1:53) ending in field goal (Q4, 01:53). The moment that decided it: TEN 29-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Final score: TEN 22-21.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.