DET pull away from TB 24-9
DET pulled away from TB 24-9. DET passing EPA: -8.6 vs TB: -29.2.
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Goff fumble lost (Q1, 52:49) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DET passing EPA: -8.6 vs TB: -29.2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TB passing attack generated -29.2 EPA why loser lost
DET pulled away from TB 24-9. DET passing EPA: -8.6 vs TB: -29.2.
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Goff fumble lost (Q1, 52:49). DET's win probability dropped from 77.3% to 66.8% — a 10.5 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave TB possession while leading by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
DET 6-play, 69-yard drive (3:01) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). DET's win probability moved from 54.6% to 69.9% — a 15.3 percentage point shift over 6 plays.
DET took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.081): (14:53) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs pushed ob at TB 39 for 30 yards (23-T.Smith).
Key play (WPA +0.063): (12:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DET, who gained 22.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why DET Won
DET won 24-9 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DET passing EPA: -8.6 vs TB: -29.2 • DET generated -7.8 EPA (-0.120 per play) vs TB's -27.7 EPA (-0.419 per play) • DET scored on 1/2 red zone trips (50%) vs TB's 0/1 (0%).
❌ What Went Wrong for TB
TB lost 9-24. What went wrong: • TB passing attack generated -29.2 EPA • TB generated -27.7 EPA (-0.419 per play) • TB failed on 12/16 third downs (25% conversion rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: DET 6-play, 69-yard drive (3:01) ending in touchdown (Q1, 15:00). The moment that decided it: J.Goff fumble lost (Q1, 52:49).
Final score: DET 24-9.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.