NFL 2025 Season Week 1

TB survive ATL challenge, win 23-20

TB edged ATL 23-20. TB rushing EPA: +0.5 vs ATL: -5.8. The defining moment: ATL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:06).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: ATL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:06) turning point
✅
Key advantage: TB rushing EPA: +0.5 vs ATL: -5.8 why winner won
❌
Key failure: ATL failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) why loser lost

TB edged ATL 23-20. TB rushing EPA: +0.5 vs ATL: -5.8.

The defining moment: ATL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:06).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

ATL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:06). ATL's win probability dropped from 36.0% to 6.7% — a 29.2 percentage point swing.

Squandered a scoring opportunity while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

ATL 18-play, 91-yard drive (8:46) ending in touchdown (Q4, 11:03). ATL's win probability moved from 33.6% to 71.2% — a 37.5 percentage point shift over 18 plays.

ATL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.251): (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.179): (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles left end to TB 2 for 1 yard (8-S.Dennis). The Replay Official r Key play (WPA +0.150): (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to TB 39 for 9 yards (35-J.Dean).

PENALTY .

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TB, who lost 40.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 29.2 percentage points, caused by a missed field goal.

momentum timeline

✅ Why TB Won

TB won 23-20 on the strength of 3 key factors: • TB rushing EPA: +0.5 vs ATL: -5.8 • TB converted 7/14 third downs (50%) vs ATL's 6/15 (40%) • TB generated +6.3 EPA (+0.114 per play) vs ATL's +3.9 EPA (+0.055 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for ATL

ATL lost 20-23. What went wrong: • ATL failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • ATL rushing attack generated -5.8 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: ATL 18-play, 91-yard drive (8:46) ending in touchdown (Q4, 11:03). The moment that decided it: ATL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:06).

Final score: TB 23-20.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

TB Play #4394 Drive #17 rushing advantage third down efficiency epa advantage third down failures rushing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.