NFL 2025 Season Week 12

SEA hold off TEN 30-24

SEA held off TEN 30-24. SEA generated +13.4 EPA (+0.290 per play) vs TEN's -0.4 EPA (-0.005 per play). The defining moment: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 63-yard TD (Q2, 41:11).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 63-yard TD (Q2, 41:11) turning point
✅
Key advantage: SEA generated +13.4 EPA (+0.290 per play) vs TEN's -0.4 EPA (-0.005 per play) why winner won
❌
Key failure: TEN failed on 11/17 third downs (35% conversion rate) why loser lost

SEA held off TEN 30-24. SEA generated +13.4 EPA (+0.290 per play) vs TEN's -0.4 EPA (-0.005 per play).

The defining moment: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 63-yard TD (Q2, 41:11).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 63-yard TD (Q2, 41:11). SEA's win probability jumped from 48.4% to 68.7% — a 20.3 percentage point swing.

Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

SEA 3-play, 67-yard drive (1:42) ending in touchdown (Q2, 12:44). SEA's win probability moved from 50.6% to 68.8% — a 18.2 percentage point shift over 3 plays.

SEA took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.203): (11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SEA, who lost 42.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 20.3 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.

momentum timeline

✅ Why SEA Won

SEA won 30-24 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SEA generated +13.4 EPA (+0.290 per play) vs TEN's -0.4 EPA (-0.005 per play) • SEA scored on 7/10 drives (70%) vs TEN's 3/8 (38%) • SEA rushing EPA: +3.9 vs TEN: -2.5.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for TEN

TEN lost 24-30. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 11/17 third downs (35% conversion rate) • TEN's defense allowed SEA to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • TEN allowed 4 sacks.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: SEA 3-play, 67-yard drive (1:42) ending in touchdown (Q2, 12:44). The moment that decided it: S.Darnold to J.Smith-Njigba, 63-yard TD (Q2, 41:11).

Final score: SEA 30-24.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

SEA Play #1120 Drive #4 epa advantage scoring drive rate rushing advantage third down failures defensive leakage pressure allowed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.