NO defeat TEN 34-26
NO defeated TEN 34-26. NO generated +12.5 EPA (+0.245 per play) vs TEN's -13.0 EPA (-0.181 per play). The defining moment: C.Olave 60-yard gain (Q4, 7:59).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: C.Olave 60-yard gain (Q4, 7:59) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: NO generated +12.5 EPA (+0.245 per play) vs TEN's -13.0 EPA (-0.181 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TEN failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate) why loser lost
NO defeated TEN 34-26. NO generated +12.5 EPA (+0.245 per play) vs TEN's -13.0 EPA (-0.181 per play).
The defining moment: C.Olave 60-yard gain (Q4, 7:59).
⚡ The Turning Point
C.Olave 60-yard gain (Q4, 7:59). NO's win probability jumped from 21.3% to 40.6% — a 19.3 percentage point swing.
A -yard gain moved the chains and shifted field position while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
NO 4-play, 80-yard drive (2:23) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:45). NO's win probability moved from 18.2% to 47.4% — a 29.2 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
NO took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.193): (7:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to TEN 8 for 60 yards (39-D.Baker) [92-J.Ha Key play (WPA +0.072): (6:26) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 81-K.Austin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NO, who lost 48.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 19.3 percentage points, caused by a explosive play.
✅ Why NO Won
NO won 34-26 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NO generated +12.5 EPA (+0.245 per play) vs TEN's -13.0 EPA (-0.181 per play) • NO passing EPA: +11.3 vs TEN: -8.6 • NO rushing EPA: +1.2 vs TEN: -4.4.
❌ What Went Wrong for TEN
TEN lost 26-34. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate) • TEN generated -13.0 EPA (-0.181 per play) • TEN allowed 4 sacks.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: NO 4-play, 80-yard drive (2:23) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:45). The moment that decided it: C.Olave 60-yard gain (Q4, 7:59).
Final score: NO 34-26.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.