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NFL 2025 Season Week 6

NE hold off NO 25-19

NE held off NO 25-19. NE passing EPA: +17.4 vs NO: -1.4. The defining moment: NE fails on 4th down (Q2, 35:54).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: NE fails on 4th down (Q2, 35:54) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: NE passing EPA: +17.4 vs NO: -1.4 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NO failed on 6/9 third downs (33% conversion rate) why loser lost

NE held off NO 25-19. NE passing EPA: +17.4 vs NO: -1.4.

The defining moment: NE fails on 4th down (Q2, 35:54).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

NE fails on 4th down (Q2, 35:54). NE's win probability dropped from 58.8% to 42.4% — a 16.4 percentage point swing.

Ended the drive and handed field position to NO while leading by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

NE 7-play, 73-yard drive (1:20) ending in touchdown (Q2, 01:51). NE's win probability moved from 43.9% to 69.0% — a 25.1 percentage point shift over 7 plays.

NE took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.090): (:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

PENALTY on NO-1-A.Ta Key play (WPA +0.058): (:53) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry ran ob at NO 40 for 12 yards (4-K.McKinstry).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who lost 25.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 16.4 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.

momentum timeline

✅ Why NE Won

NE won 25-19 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NE passing EPA: +17.4 vs NO: -1.4 • NE generated +8.8 EPA (+0.158 per play) vs NO's -2.1 EPA (-0.041 per play) • NE had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs NO's -1.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NO

NO lost 19-25. What went wrong: • NO failed on 6/9 third downs (33% conversion rate) • NO committed 1 turnover (0 INTs, 1 fumble lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: NE 7-play, 73-yard drive (1:20) ending in touchdown (Q2, 01:51). The moment that decided it: NE fails on 4th down (Q2, 35:54).

Final score: NE 25-19.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

NE Play #1552 Drive #8 passing advantage epa advantage turnover margin third down failures turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.