MIN defeat DAL 34-26
MIN defeated DAL 34-26. MIN passing EPA: +12.0 vs DAL: +1.0. The defining moment: DAL 59-yard field goal missed (Q4, 12:24).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: DAL 59-yard field goal missed (Q4, 12:24) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: MIN passing EPA: +12.0 vs DAL: +1.0 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: DAL failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) why loser lost
MIN defeated DAL 34-26. MIN passing EPA: +12.0 vs DAL: +1.0.
The defining moment: DAL 59-yard field goal missed (Q4, 12:24).
⚡ The Turning Point
DAL 59-yard field goal missed (Q4, 12:24). DAL's win probability dropped from 51.9% to 36.4% — a 15.4 percentage point swing.
Squandered a scoring opportunity while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
MIN 8-play, 73-yard drive (3:38) ending in touchdown (Q3, 04:50). MIN's win probability moved from 26.6% to 45.2% — a 18.6 percentage point shift over 8 plays.
MIN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.131): (2:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (34-S.Revel).
Key play (WPA -0.050): (3:26) 1-J.Nailor right end to DAL 37 for -2 yards (6-D.Wilson).
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to MIN, who lost 34.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 15.4 percentage points, caused by a missed field goal.
✅ Why MIN Won
MIN won 34-26 on the strength of 4 key factors: • MIN passing EPA: +12.0 vs DAL: +1.0 • MIN generated 2 sacks and 9 QB hits vs DAL's 0 sacks and 1 QB hits • MIN generated +11.5 EPA (+0.226 per play) vs DAL's +7.7 EPA (+0.111 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for DAL
DAL lost 26-34. What went wrong: • DAL failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) • DAL's defense allowed MIN to score on 6/11 drives (55%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: MIN 8-play, 73-yard drive (3:38) ending in touchdown (Q3, 04:50). The moment that decided it: DAL 59-yard field goal missed (Q4, 12:24).
Final score: MIN 34-26.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.