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NFL 2025 Season Week 19

HOU rout PIT 30-6

HOU dominated PIT 30-6. HOU generated +5.8 EPA (+0.088 per play) vs PIT's -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q4, 11:34) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: HOU generated +5.8 EPA (+0.088 per play) vs PIT's -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: PIT generated -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play) why loser lost

HOU dominated PIT 30-6. HOU generated +5.8 EPA (+0.088 per play) vs PIT's -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q4, 11:34). PIT's win probability dropped from 31.6% to 11.0% — a 20.6 percentage point swing.

Turnover gave HOU possession while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

PIT 4-play, 0-yard drive (1:44) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q4, 13:07). PIT's win probability moved from 36.4% to 89.2% — a 25.1 percentage point shift over 4 plays.

PIT's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.206): (11:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 33 for -10 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson Key play (WPA -0.066): (12:14) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left tackle to PIT 43 for -2 yards (72-T.Togiai, 39-H.To'oTo'o).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 4 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to HOU, who lost 31.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 20.6 percentage points, caused by a fumble.

momentum timeline

✅ Why HOU Won

HOU won 30-6 on the strength of 5 key factors: • HOU generated +5.8 EPA (+0.088 per play) vs PIT's -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play) • HOU converted 10/15 third downs (67%) vs PIT's 2/14 (14%) • HOU passing EPA: +0.4 vs PIT: -25.4.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for PIT

PIT lost 6-30. What went wrong: • PIT generated -30.5 EPA (-0.544 per play) • PIT failed on 12/14 third downs (14% conversion rate) • PIT passing attack generated -25.4 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: PIT 4-play, 0-yard drive (1:44) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q4, 13:07). The moment that decided it: A.Rodgers fumble lost (Q4, 11:34).

Final score: HOU 30-6.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

HOU Play #3273 Drive #16 epa advantage third down efficiency passing advantage offensive inefficiency third down failures passing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.