Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 8

BAL pull away from CHI 30-16

BAL pulled away from CHI 30-16. BAL generated +12.7 EPA (+0.215 per play) vs CHI's +1.5 EPA (+0.024 per play). The defining moment: C.Williams intercepted (Q4, 9:08).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: C.Williams intercepted (Q4, 9:08) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: BAL generated +12.7 EPA (+0.215 per play) vs CHI's +1.5 EPA (+0.024 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: CHI's defense allowed BAL to score on 6/9 drives (67%) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

BAL pulled away from CHI 30-16. BAL generated +12.7 EPA (+0.215 per play) vs CHI's +1.5 EPA (+0.024 per play).

The defining moment: C.Williams intercepted (Q4, 9:08).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

C.Williams intercepted (Q4, 9:08). CHI's win probability dropped from 26.2% to 14.4% — a 11.8 percentage point swing.

Gave BAL the ball and ended CHI's threat while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

BAL 12-play, 62-yard drive (6:48) ending in touchdown (Q1, 00:03). BAL's win probability moved from 39.4% to 57.9% — a 18.5 percentage point shift over 12 plays.

BAL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.056): (8:19) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.054): (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to CHI 22 for 7 yards (98-M.Sweat).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to BAL, who gained 27.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why BAL Won

BAL won 30-16 on the strength of 5 key factors: • BAL generated +12.7 EPA (+0.215 per play) vs CHI's +1.5 EPA (+0.024 per play) • BAL scored on 6/6 red zone trips (100%) vs CHI's 2/3 (67%) • BAL had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs CHI's -1.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for CHI

CHI lost 16-30. What went wrong: • CHI's defense allowed BAL to score on 6/9 drives (67%) • CHI committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost) • CHI failed to score on 1 of 3 red zone trips (67% scoring rate).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: BAL 12-play, 62-yard drive (6:48) ending in touchdown (Q1, 00:03). The moment that decided it: C.Williams intercepted (Q4, 9:08).

Final score: BAL 30-16.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

BAL Play #3337 Drive #4 epa advantage red zone efficiency turnover margin defensive leakage turnovers committed red zone failures

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.