NFL 2025 Season Week 9

CAR win 16-13 on late field goal over GB

CAR edged GB 16-13. CAR rushing EPA: +8.4 vs GB: -3.2. The defining moment: CAR 49-yard field goal (Q4, 0:01).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: CAR 49-yard field goal (Q4, 0:01) turning point
✅
Key advantage: CAR rushing EPA: +8.4 vs GB: -3.2 why winner won
❌
Key failure: GB committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) why loser lost

CAR edged GB 16-13. CAR rushing EPA: +8.4 vs GB: -3.2.

The defining moment: CAR 49-yard field goal (Q4, 0:01).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

CAR 49-yard field goal (Q4, 0:01). CAR's win probability jumped from 72.7% to 100.0% — a 27.3 percentage point swing.

Points on the board while tied late.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

GB 12-play, 71-yard drive (4:52) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:24). GB's win probability moved from 20.3% to 49.9% — a 29.6 percentage point shift over 12 plays.

GB tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.121): (2:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (56-C.Rozeboom).

Green Bay challenged Key play (WPA +0.104): (5:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 18-M.Heath to CAR 32 for 11 yards (26-C.Sm Key play (WPA +0.056): (5:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 6 yards .

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to CAR, who lost 26.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 27.3 percentage points, caused by a field goal.

momentum timeline

✅ Why CAR Won

CAR won 16-13 on the strength of 4 key factors: • CAR rushing EPA: +8.4 vs GB: -3.2 • CAR had a +1 turnover margin (2 forced, 1 committed) vs GB's -1 • CAR generated +5.1 EPA (+0.095 per play) vs GB's +2.7 EPA (+0.043 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for GB

GB lost 13-16. What went wrong: • GB committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) • GB failed to score on 2 of 5 red zone trips (60% scoring rate) • GB forced only 1 turnover while CAR forced 2.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: GB 12-play, 71-yard drive (4:52) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:24). The moment that decided it: CAR 49-yard field goal (Q4, 0:01).

Final score: CAR 16-13.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

CAR Play #4002 Drive #13 rushing advantage turnover margin epa advantage turnovers committed red zone failures failed to force turnovers

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.