SF pull away from CLE 26-8
SF pulled away from CLE 26-8. SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CLE's 0/0 (0%).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: CLE punt (Q1, 55:40) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CLE's 0/0 (0%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: CLE failed on 8/11 third downs (27% conversion rate) why loser lost
SF pulled away from CLE 26-8. SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CLE's 0/0 (0%).
⚡ The Turning Point
CLE punt (Q1, 55:40). CLE's win probability dropped from 58.9% to 44.0% — a 14.9 percentage point swing.
CLE lost ground at a pivotal moment while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CLE 10-play, 90-yard drive (5:42) ending in touchdown (Q2, 06:21). CLE's win probability moved from 34.6% to 58.7% — a 24.1 percentage point shift over 10 plays.
CLE took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.146): (:47) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep left to 44-H.Fannin for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.052): TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-Q.Judkins rushes right guard.
ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 3 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to SF, who lost 33.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why SF Won
SF won 26-8 on the strength of 5 key factors: • SF scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs CLE's 0/0 (0%) • SF converted 11/17 third downs (65%) vs CLE's 3/11 (27%) • SF generated +0.6 EPA (+0.009 per play) vs CLE's -11.9 EPA (-0.195 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for CLE
CLE lost 8-26. What went wrong: • CLE failed on 8/11 third downs (27% conversion rate) • CLE generated -11.9 EPA (-0.195 per play) • CLE's defense allowed SF to score on 5/11 drives (46%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CLE 10-play, 90-yard drive (5:42) ending in touchdown (Q2, 06:21). The moment that decided it: CLE punt (Q1, 55:40).
Final score: SF 26-8.
Evidence Sources
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