PIT force turnovers, hold off NE 21-14
PIT held off NE 21-14. PIT had a +4 turnover margin (5 forced, 1 committed) vs NE's -4. The defining moment: D.Maye to H.Henry, 16-yard TD (Q4, 15:00).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: D.Maye to H.Henry, 16-yard TD (Q4, 15:00) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: PIT had a +4 turnover margin (5 forced, 1 committed) vs NE's -4 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NE committed 5 turnovers (1 INT, 4 fumbles lost) why loser lost
PIT held off NE 21-14. PIT had a +4 turnover margin (5 forced, 1 committed) vs NE's -4.
The defining moment: D.Maye to H.Henry, 16-yard TD (Q4, 15:00).
⚡ The Turning Point
D.Maye to H.Henry, 16-yard TD (Q4, 15:00). NE's win probability jumped from 28.1% to 52.0% — a 23.9 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
PIT 9-play, 62-yard drive (5:25) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:41). PIT's win probability moved from 50.9% to 88.0% — a 37.1 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
PIT took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.222): (2:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.063): (4:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren right guard to NE 21 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane). Key play (WPA +0.062): (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell to NE 17 for 10 yards (22-C.Woods).
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 6 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who gained 38.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 23.9 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why PIT Won
PIT won 21-14 on the strength of 5 key factors: • PIT had a +4 turnover margin (5 forced, 1 committed) vs NE's -4 • PIT scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs NE's 2/4 (50%) • PIT generated 5 sacks and 8 QB hits vs NE's 0 sacks and 3 QB hits.
❌ What Went Wrong for NE
NE lost 14-21. What went wrong: • NE committed 5 turnovers (1 INT, 4 fumbles lost) • NE forced only 1 turnover while PIT forced 5 • NE failed to score on 2 of 4 red zone trips (50% scoring rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: PIT 9-play, 62-yard drive (5:25) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:41). The moment that decided it: D.Maye to H.Henry, 16-yard TD (Q4, 15:00).
Final score: PIT 21-14.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.