NE capitalize on DEN interception to win 10-7
NE edged DEN 10-7. NE had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -2. The defining moment: J.Stidham intercepted (Q4, 2:18).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Stidham intercepted (Q4, 2:18) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: NE had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: DEN failed on 10/14 third downs (29% conversion rate) why loser lost
NE edged DEN 10-7. NE had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -2.
The defining moment: J.Stidham intercepted (Q4, 2:18).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Stidham intercepted (Q4, 2:18). DEN's win probability dropped from 35.4% to 15.4% — a 20.0 percentage point swing.
Gave NE the ball and ended DEN's threat while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
DEN 4-play, 5-yard drive (2:13) ending in missed field goal (Q4, 06:55). DEN's win probability moved from 53.2% to 22.9% — a 30.3 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
DEN added points with a field goal. Key play (WPA -0.202): (4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawsh Key play (WPA -0.053): (6:16) (Shotgun) 8-J.Stidham pass short left to 12-R.Harvey to NE 36 for no gain (7-C.Davis).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to NE, who lost 33.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 20.2 percentage points, caused by a missed field goal.
✅ Why NE Won
NE won 10-7 on the strength of 5 key factors: • NE had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -2 • NE scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs DEN's 1/2 (50%) • NE generated -8.4 EPA (-0.138 per play) vs DEN's -18.1 EPA (-0.313 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for DEN
DEN lost 7-10. What went wrong: • DEN failed on 10/14 third downs (29% conversion rate) • DEN generated -18.1 EPA (-0.313 per play) • DEN committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: DEN 4-play, 5-yard drive (2:13) ending in missed field goal (Q4, 06:55). The moment that decided it: J.Stidham intercepted (Q4, 2:18).
Final score: NE 10-7.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.