DEN outlast WAS 27-26 in back-and-forth battle
DEN edged WAS 27-26. DEN passing EPA: +9.9 vs WAS: -0.3. The defining moment: WAS pass (OT, 2:47).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: WAS pass (OT, 2:47) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DEN passing EPA: +9.9 vs WAS: -0.3 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: WAS's defense allowed DEN to score on 5/10 drives (50%) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 4 lead changes momentum timeline
DEN edged WAS 27-26. DEN passing EPA: +9.9 vs WAS: -0.3.
The defining moment: WAS pass (OT, 2:47).
⚡ The Turning Point
WAS pass (OT, 2:47). WAS's win probability dropped from 46.8% to 0.0% — a 46.8 percentage point swing.
A key completion sustained the drive while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
WAS 11-play, 65-yard drive (4:12) ending in touchdown (OT, 06:59). WAS's win probability moved from 51.3% to 46.8% — a 51.3 percentage point shift over 11 plays.
WAS tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA -0.468): TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT.
8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Key play (WPA +0.434): (3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Mo Key play (WPA +0.347): (5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 26-J.McNichols INTERCEPTED by .
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 4 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to WAS, who gained 74.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 46.8 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.
✅ Why DEN Won
DEN won 27-26 on the strength of 3 key factors: • DEN passing EPA: +9.9 vs WAS: -0.3 • DEN scored on 5/5 red zone trips (100%) vs WAS's 4/5 (80%) • DEN generated +12.6 EPA (+0.183 per play) vs WAS's +6.2 EPA (+0.073 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for WAS
WAS lost 26-27. What went wrong: • WAS's defense allowed DEN to score on 5/10 drives (50%) • WAS committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost) • WAS failed to score on 1 of 5 red zone trips (80% scoring rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: WAS 11-play, 65-yard drive (4:12) ending in touchdown (OT, 06:59). The moment that decided it: WAS pass (OT, 2:47).
Final score: DEN 27-26.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.