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NFL 2025 Season Week 13

JAX rout TEN 25-3

JAX dominated TEN 25-3. JAX passing EPA: +4.9 vs TEN: -24.6.

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: J.Meyers 50-yard gain (Q1, 48:25) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: JAX passing EPA: +4.9 vs TEN: -24.6 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: TEN failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) why loser lost

JAX dominated TEN 25-3. JAX passing EPA: +4.9 vs TEN: -24.6.

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

J.Meyers 50-yard gain (Q1, 48:25). JAX's win probability jumped from 37.0% to 50.9% — a 13.9 percentage point swing.

A -yard gain moved the chains and shifted field position while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

JAX 7-play, 84-yard drive (4:02) ending in touchdown (Q1, 05:06). JAX's win probability moved from 34.3% to 54.5% — a 20.2 percentage point shift over 7 plays.

JAX took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.139): (3:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to TEN 6 for 50 yards (33-C.Gray).

Key play (WPA +0.075): (4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington to JAX 44 for 26 yards (23-K.Winsto Key play (WPA +0.054): (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to JAX, who lost 33.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why JAX Won

JAX won 25-3 on the strength of 5 key factors: • JAX passing EPA: +4.9 vs TEN: -24.6 • JAX generated -0.3 EPA (-0.006 per play) vs TEN's -23.3 EPA (-0.424 per play) • JAX had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs TEN's 0.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for TEN

TEN lost 3-25. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) • TEN passing attack generated -24.6 EPA • TEN generated -23.3 EPA (-0.424 per play).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: JAX 7-play, 84-yard drive (4:02) ending in touchdown (Q1, 05:06). The moment that decided it: J.Meyers 50-yard gain (Q1, 48:25).

Final score: JAX 25-3.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

JAX Play #612 Drive #3 passing advantage epa advantage explosive plays third down failures passing struggles offensive inefficiency

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.