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NFL 2025 Season Week 4

JAX force turnovers, hold off SF 26-21

JAX held off SF 26-21. JAX had a +4 turnover margin (4 forced, 0 committed) vs SF's -4. The defining moment: B.Purdy fumble lost (Q4, 2:52).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: B.Purdy fumble lost (Q4, 2:52) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: JAX had a +4 turnover margin (4 forced, 0 committed) vs SF's -4 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: SF committed 4 turnovers (2 INTs, 2 fumbles lost) why loser lost

JAX held off SF 26-21. JAX had a +4 turnover margin (4 forced, 0 committed) vs SF's -4.

The defining moment: B.Purdy fumble lost (Q4, 2:52).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

B.Purdy fumble lost (Q4, 2:52). SF's win probability dropped from 29.4% to 10.3% — a 19.1 percentage point swing.

Turnover gave JAX possession while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

SF 3-play, 0-yard drive (1:45) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q3, 04:07). SF's win probability moved from 27.7% to 88.0% — a 19.5 percentage point shift over 3 plays.

SF's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.123): (2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks.

11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCH.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 5 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to JAX, who lost 33.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 19.1 percentage points, caused by a fumble.

momentum timeline

✅ Why JAX Won

JAX won 26-21 on the strength of 3 key factors: • JAX had a +4 turnover margin (4 forced, 0 committed) vs SF's -4 • JAX generated +4.7 EPA (+0.078 per play) vs SF's -4.5 EPA (-0.070 per play) • JAX passing EPA: +5.3 vs SF: -1.8.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for SF

SF lost 21-26. What went wrong: • SF committed 4 turnovers (2 INTs, 2 fumbles lost) • SF forced only 0 turnovers while JAX forced 4.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: SF 3-play, 0-yard drive (1:45) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q3, 04:07). The moment that decided it: B.Purdy fumble lost (Q4, 2:52).

Final score: JAX 26-21.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

JAX Play #4412 Drive #16 turnover margin epa advantage passing advantage turnovers committed failed to force turnovers

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.