JAX outlast ARI 27-24 after 3 lead changes
JAX edged ARI 27-24. JAX had 5 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 2. The defining moment: ARI fails on 4th down (OT, 4:07).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: ARI fails on 4th down (OT, 4:07) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: JAX had 5 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: ARI failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 3 lead changes momentum timeline
JAX edged ARI 27-24. JAX had 5 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 2.
The defining moment: ARI fails on 4th down (OT, 4:07).
⚡ The Turning Point
ARI fails on 4th down (OT, 4:07). ARI's win probability dropped from 35.2% to 0.0% — a 35.2 percentage point swing.
Ended the drive and handed field position to JAX while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
JAX 6-play, 65-yard drive (3:25) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:12). JAX's win probability moved from 28.9% to 62.3% — a 33.4 percentage point shift over 6 plays.
JAX took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.153): (5:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers pushed ob at ARI 24 for 17 yards (34-J Key play (WPA +0.075): (7:12) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange pushed ob at ARI 42 for 23 yards (34-J.Thompso Key play (WPA +0.071): (3:54) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 3 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to JAX, who lost 24.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 35.2 percentage points, caused by a play sequence.
✅ Why JAX Won
JAX won 27-24 on the strength of 3 key factors: • JAX had 5 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 2 • JAX generated 6 sacks and 14 QB hits vs ARI's 3 sacks and 4 QB hits • JAX scored on 6/14 drives (43%) vs ARI's 3/12 (25%).
❌ What Went Wrong for ARI
ARI lost 24-27. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 11/16 third downs (31% conversion rate) • ARI allowed 6 sacks • ARI generated -11.2 EPA (-0.147 per play).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: JAX 6-play, 65-yard drive (3:25) ending in touchdown (Q4, 07:12). The moment that decided it: ARI fails on 4th down (OT, 4:07).
Final score: JAX 27-24.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.