DET win 19-16 on late field goal over CHI
DET edged CHI 19-16. DET generated +10.4 EPA (+0.144 per play) vs CHI's -1.0 EPA (-0.019 per play). The defining moment: DET 42-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: DET 42-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DET generated +10.4 EPA (+0.144 per play) vs CHI's -1.0 EPA (-0.019 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: CHI failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) why loser lost
DET edged CHI 19-16. DET generated +10.4 EPA (+0.144 per play) vs CHI's -1.0 EPA (-0.019 per play).
The defining moment: DET 42-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
⚡ The Turning Point
DET 42-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02). DET's win probability jumped from 75.4% to 100.0% — a 24.6 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while tied late.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CHI 12-play, 88-yard drive (5:56) ending in touchdown (Q4, 11:21). CHI's win probability moved from 17.0% to 52.9% — a 35.9 percentage point shift over 12 plays.
CHI tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.117): TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT.
18-C.Williams pass to 85-C.Kmet is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Key play (WPA +0.069): (5:28) 74-J.McFadden reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 1 Key play (WPA +0.067): (9:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to CHI 41 for 19 yards (29-A.Maddox).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to CHI, who gained 36.4 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 24.6 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why DET Won
DET won 19-16 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DET generated +10.4 EPA (+0.144 per play) vs CHI's -1.0 EPA (-0.019 per play) • DET passing EPA: +9.6 vs CHI: -1.4 • DET scored on 5/9 drives (56%) vs CHI's 2/8 (25%).
❌ What Went Wrong for CHI
CHI lost 16-19. What went wrong: • CHI failed on 7/11 third downs (36% conversion rate) • CHI's defense allowed DET to score on 5/9 drives (56%) • CHI committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CHI 12-play, 88-yard drive (5:56) ending in touchdown (Q4, 11:21). The moment that decided it: DET 42-yard field goal (Q4, 0:02).
Final score: DET 19-16.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.