IND hold off DEN, win 29-28 on late field goal
IND edged DEN 29-28. IND had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -1. The defining moment: IND 45-yard field goal (Q4, 0:00).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: IND 45-yard field goal (Q4, 0:00) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: IND had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -1 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: DEN failed on 5/9 third downs (44% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline
IND edged DEN 29-28. IND had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -1.
The defining moment: IND 45-yard field goal (Q4, 0:00).
⚡ The Turning Point
IND 45-yard field goal (Q4, 0:00). IND's win probability jumped from 58.7% to 100.0% — a 41.3 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
IND 9-play, 41-yard drive (3:15) ending in field goal (Q4, 03:15). IND's win probability moved from 43.8% to 100.0% — a 56.2 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
IND took the lead with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.413): (:00) 3-S.Shrader 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Key play (WPA +0.231): (:03) 3-S.Shrader 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PENA Key play (WPA +0.150): (1:50) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to DEN 43 for 7 yards (2-P.Surtain).
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to IND, who gained 41.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 41.3 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why IND Won
IND won 29-28 on the strength of 3 key factors: • IND had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs DEN's -1 • IND scored on 7/10 drives (70%) vs DEN's 4/9 (44%) • DEN had 2 three-and-outs vs IND's 0.
❌ What Went Wrong for DEN
DEN lost 28-29. What went wrong: • DEN failed on 5/9 third downs (44% conversion rate) • DEN's defense allowed IND to score on 7/10 drives (70%) • DEN committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: IND 9-play, 41-yard drive (3:15) ending in field goal (Q4, 03:15). The moment that decided it: IND 45-yard field goal (Q4, 0:00).
Final score: IND 29-28.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.