CHI hold off WAS, win 25-24 on late field goal
CHI edged WAS 25-24. CHI had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs WAS's -3. The defining moment: CHI 38-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: CHI 38-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: CHI had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs WAS's -3 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: WAS committed 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline
CHI edged WAS 25-24. CHI had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs WAS's -3.
The defining moment: CHI 38-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
⚡ The Turning Point
CHI 38-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03). CHI's win probability jumped from 56.6% to 100.0% — a 43.4 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
CHI 9-play, 36-yard drive (3:07) ending in field goal (Q4, 03:07). CHI's win probability moved from 40.8% to 56.6% — a 68.9 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
CHI added points with a field goal. Key play (WPA +0.434): (:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Key play (WPA +0.171): (1:14) 4-D.Swift right end to WAS 18 for 15 yards (54-B.Wagner). Key play (WPA +0.102): (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to WAS 45 for 6 yards (4-F.Luvu).
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to CHI, who lost 51.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 43.4 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why CHI Won
CHI won 25-24 on the strength of 4 key factors: • CHI had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs WAS's -3 • CHI rushing EPA: +6.5 vs WAS: -10.2 • CHI generated +9.8 EPA (+0.166 per play) vs WAS's -3.8 EPA (-0.064 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for WAS
WAS lost 24-25. What went wrong: • WAS committed 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost) • WAS failed on 5/8 third downs (38% conversion rate) • WAS forced only 0 turnovers while CHI forced 3.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: CHI 9-play, 36-yard drive (3:07) ending in field goal (Q4, 03:07). The moment that decided it: CHI 38-yard field goal (Q4, 0:03).
Final score: CHI 25-24.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.