CHI hold off MIN, win 19-17 on late field goal
CHI edged MIN 19-17. CHI had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs MIN's -2. The defining moment: CHI 48-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: CHI 48-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: CHI had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs MIN's -2 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: MIN failed on 8/11 third downs (27% conversion rate) why loser lost
- ▸ Game character: volatile contest with 2 lead changes momentum timeline
CHI edged MIN 19-17. CHI had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs MIN's -2.
The defining moment: CHI 48-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
⚡ The Turning Point
CHI 48-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04). CHI's win probability jumped from 56.1% to 100.0% — a 43.9 percentage point swing.
Points on the board while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
MIN 10-play, 85-yard drive (2:24) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:14). MIN's win probability moved from 17.0% to 57.6% — a 40.6 percentage point shift over 10 plays.
MIN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.185): (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.111): (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor ran ob at CHI 15 for 16 yard Key play (WPA +0.068): (1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 3-J.Addison to 50 for 5 yards (24-N.McCloud) [49-T.
📈 Game Flow
This was a volatile contest with 2 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to MIN, who gained 33.7 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 43.9 percentage points, caused by a field goal.
✅ Why CHI Won
CHI won 19-17 on the strength of 5 key factors: • CHI had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs MIN's -2 • CHI passing EPA: -0.9 vs MIN: -13.1 • CHI generated -3.5 EPA (-0.048 per play) vs MIN's -10.4 EPA (-0.193 per play).
❌ What Went Wrong for MIN
MIN lost 17-19. What went wrong: • MIN failed on 8/11 third downs (27% conversion rate) • MIN committed 2 turnovers (2 INTs, 0 fumbles lost) • MIN passing attack generated -13.1 EPA.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: MIN 10-play, 85-yard drive (2:24) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:14). The moment that decided it: CHI 48-yard field goal (Q4, 0:04).
Final score: CHI 19-17.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.