NFL 2025 Season Week 11

BAL rally past CLE 23-16 with clutch touchdown

BAL held off CLE 23-16. BAL rushing EPA: +7.7 vs CLE: -5.1. The defining moment: M.Andrews 35-yard rushing TD (Q4, 2:39).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

⚡
Turning point: M.Andrews 35-yard rushing TD (Q4, 2:39) turning point
✅
Key advantage: BAL rushing EPA: +7.7 vs CLE: -5.1 why winner won
❌
Key failure: CLE failed on 12/14 third downs (14% conversion rate) why loser lost
▸
Game character: volatile contest with 1 lead change momentum timeline

BAL held off CLE 23-16. BAL rushing EPA: +7.7 vs CLE: -5.1.

The defining moment: M.Andrews 35-yard rushing TD (Q4, 2:39).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

M.Andrews 35-yard rushing TD (Q4, 2:39). BAL's win probability jumped from 49.8% to 86.6% — a 36.8 percentage point swing.

Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while tied late.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

BAL 2-play, 0-yard drive (1:01) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q2, 08:44). BAL's win probability moved from 40.8% to 78.0% — a 18.8 percentage point shift over 2 plays.

BAL's drive ended in a turnover that was returned for a touchdown by the opponent. Key play (WPA -0.154): (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 34-K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush at.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a volatile contest with 1 lead change and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BAL, who lost 48.6 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 36.8 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.

momentum timeline

✅ Why BAL Won

BAL won 23-16 on the strength of 4 key factors: • BAL rushing EPA: +7.7 vs CLE: -5.1 • BAL generated -5.1 EPA (-0.088 per play) vs CLE's -22.1 EPA (-0.409 per play) • BAL converted 5/13 third downs (38%) vs CLE's 2/14 (14%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for CLE

CLE lost 16-23. What went wrong: • CLE failed on 12/14 third downs (14% conversion rate) • CLE generated -22.1 EPA (-0.409 per play) • CLE passing attack generated -17.0 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: BAL 2-play, 0-yard drive (1:01) ending in a turnover returned for a touchdown (Q2, 08:44). The moment that decided it: M.Andrews 35-yard rushing TD (Q4, 2:39).

Final score: BAL 23-16.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

BAL Play #3590 Drive #7 rushing advantage epa advantage third down efficiency third down failures offensive inefficiency passing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.