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NFL 2025 Season Week 13

TB capitalize on ARI interception to win 20-17

TB edged ARI 20-17. TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -2. The defining moment: J.Brissett intercepted (Q1, 48:47).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: J.Brissett intercepted (Q1, 48:47) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -2 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: ARI failed on 5/8 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost

TB edged ARI 20-17. TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -2.

The defining moment: J.Brissett intercepted (Q1, 48:47).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

J.Brissett intercepted (Q1, 48:47). ARI's win probability dropped from 61.3% to 46.3% — a 14.9 percentage point swing.

Gave TB the ball and ended ARI's threat while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

ARI 9-play, 73-yard drive (4:00) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:58). ARI's win probability moved from 9.8% to 22.2% — a 12.5 percentage point shift over 9 plays.

ARI cut into the deficit with this scoring drive. Key play (WPA +0.087): (5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Key play (WPA +0.056): (8:16) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 85-T.McBride to TB 47 for 20 yards (31-A.Winfield).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TB, who gained 33.0 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why TB Won

TB won 20-17 on the strength of 5 key factors: • TB had a +2 turnover margin (2 forced, 0 committed) vs ARI's -2 • TB had 6 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs ARI's 2 • TB rushing EPA: +1.6 vs ARI: -7.0.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for ARI

ARI lost 17-20. What went wrong: • ARI failed on 5/8 third downs (38% conversion rate) • ARI committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) • ARI forced only 0 turnovers while TB forced 2.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: ARI 9-play, 73-yard drive (4:00) ending in touchdown (Q4, 08:58). The moment that decided it: J.Brissett intercepted (Q1, 48:47).

Final score: TB 20-17.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

TB Play #563 Drive #17 turnover margin explosive plays rushing advantage third down failures turnovers committed failed to force turnovers

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.