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NFL 2025 Season Week 4

HOU rout TEN 26-0

HOU dominated TEN 26-0. HOU generated +9.9 EPA (+0.150 per play) vs TEN's -15.3 EPA (-0.340 per play).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: TEN 41-yard field goal missed (Q1, 56:44) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: HOU generated +9.9 EPA (+0.150 per play) vs TEN's -15.3 EPA (-0.340 per play) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: TEN failed on 9/11 third downs (18% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: one-sided — the winner controlled throughout momentum timeline

HOU dominated TEN 26-0. HOU generated +9.9 EPA (+0.150 per play) vs TEN's -15.3 EPA (-0.340 per play).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

TEN 41-yard field goal missed (Q1, 56:44). TEN's win probability dropped from 47.8% to 37.9% — a 10.0 percentage point swing.

Squandered a scoring opportunity while tied game.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

HOU 13-play, 82-yard drive (7:51) ending in touchdown (Q3, 07:46). HOU's win probability moved from 75.7% to 91.3% — a 15.5 percentage point shift over 13 plays.

HOU extended their lead with a scoring drive. Key play (WPA +0.069): (4:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins ran ob at TEN 45 for 37 yards.

Key play (WPA +0.060): (1:57) 7-C.Stroud left tackle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (53-J.Ward).

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a one-sided affair. The winning team controlled the game from start to finish.

The longest sustained momentum belonged to HOU, who gained 20.5 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

momentum timeline

✅ Why HOU Won

HOU won 26-0 on the strength of 5 key factors: • HOU generated +9.9 EPA (+0.150 per play) vs TEN's -15.3 EPA (-0.340 per play) • HOU scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs TEN's 0/0 (0%) • HOU passing EPA: +8.2 vs TEN: -16.4.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for TEN

TEN lost 0-26. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 9/11 third downs (18% conversion rate) • TEN passing attack generated -16.4 EPA • TEN generated -15.3 EPA (-0.340 per play).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: HOU 13-play, 82-yard drive (7:51) ending in touchdown (Q3, 07:46). The moment that decided it: TEN 41-yard field goal missed (Q1, 56:44).

Final score: HOU 26-0.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

HOU Play #219 Drive #12 epa advantage red zone efficiency passing advantage third down failures passing struggles offensive inefficiency

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.