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NFL 2025 Season Week 11
BUF defeat TB 44-32

BUF defeat TB 44-32

BUF defeated TB 44-32. BUF passing EPA: +12.4 vs TB: -9.0. The defining moment: J.Allen to Ty.Johnson, 52-yard TD (Q2, 30:45).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: J.Allen to Ty.Johnson, 52-yard TD (Q2, 30:45) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: BUF passing EPA: +12.4 vs TB: -9.0 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: TB committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) why loser lost

BUF defeated TB 44-32. BUF passing EPA: +12.4 vs TB: -9.0.

The defining moment: J.Allen to Ty.Johnson, 52-yard TD (Q2, 30:45).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

J.Allen to Ty.Johnson, 52-yard TD (Q2, 30:45). BUF's win probability jumped from 49.2% to 69.1% — a 19.9 percentage point swing.

Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

TB 11-play, 69-yard drive (7:09) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:09). TB's win probability moved from 31.2% to 50.1% — a 19.0 percentage point shift over 11 plays.

TB took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.078): (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield left end to BUF 28 for 13 yards (21-J.Poyer).

Key play (WPA +0.077): (12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who gained 35.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 19.9 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.

momentum timeline

✅ Why BUF Won

BUF won 44-32 on the strength of 4 key factors: • BUF passing EPA: +12.4 vs TB: -9.0 • BUF had 8 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs TB's 3 • BUF generated +13.2 EPA (+0.243 per play) vs TB's +3.7 EPA (+0.054 per play).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for TB

TB lost 32-44. What went wrong: • TB committed 2 turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble lost) • TB's defense allowed BUF to score on 7/11 drives (64%) • TB passing attack generated -9.0 EPA.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: TB 11-play, 69-yard drive (7:09) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:09). The moment that decided it: J.Allen to Ty.Johnson, 52-yard TD (Q2, 30:45).

Final score: BUF 44-32.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

BUF Play #1961 Drive #5 passing advantage explosive plays epa advantage turnovers committed defensive leakage passing struggles

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.