BUF defeat NO 31-19
BUF defeated NO 31-19. BUF passing EPA: +4.9 vs NO: -12.0. The defining moment: J.Allen to K.Shakir, 43-yard TD (Q1, 55:58).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: J.Allen to K.Shakir, 43-yard TD (Q1, 55:58) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: BUF passing EPA: +4.9 vs NO: -12.0 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NO failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) why loser lost
BUF defeated NO 31-19. BUF passing EPA: +4.9 vs NO: -12.0.
The defining moment: J.Allen to K.Shakir, 43-yard TD (Q1, 55:58).
⚡ The Turning Point
J.Allen to K.Shakir, 43-yard TD (Q1, 55:58). BUF's win probability jumped from 56.9% to 69.8% — a 12.8 percentage point swing.
Extended or established the lead while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
NO 7-play, 69-yard drive (4:03) ending in touchdown (Q1, 10:49). NO's win probability moved from 30.1% to 45.1% — a 15.0 percentage point shift over 7 plays.
NO tied the game after trailing. Key play (WPA +0.062): (6:54) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who gained 18.3 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
✅ Why BUF Won
BUF won 31-19 on the strength of 4 key factors: • BUF passing EPA: +4.9 vs NO: -12.0 • BUF generated +10.6 EPA (+0.196 per play) vs NO's -6.2 EPA (-0.094 per play) • BUF had 4 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs NO's 0.
❌ What Went Wrong for NO
NO lost 19-31. What went wrong: • NO failed on 8/13 third downs (38% conversion rate) • NO had only 0 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs BUF's 4 • NO passing attack generated -12.0 EPA.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: NO 7-play, 69-yard drive (4:03) ending in touchdown (Q1, 10:49). The moment that decided it: J.Allen to K.Shakir, 43-yard TD (Q1, 55:58).
Final score: BUF 31-19.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.