BUF defeat MIA 31-21
BUF defeated MIA 31-21. BUF generated +15.8 EPA (+0.277 per play) vs MIA's +3.2 EPA (+0.054 per play). The defining moment: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q4, 3:06).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q4, 3:06) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: BUF generated +15.8 EPA (+0.277 per play) vs MIA's +3.2 EPA (+0.054 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: MIA's defense allowed BUF to score on 5/9 drives (56%) why loser lost
BUF defeated MIA 31-21. BUF generated +15.8 EPA (+0.277 per play) vs MIA's +3.2 EPA (+0.054 per play).
The defining moment: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q4, 3:06).
⚡ The Turning Point
T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q4, 3:06). MIA's win probability dropped from 28.9% to 5.6% — a 23.3 percentage point swing.
Gave BUF the ball and ended MIA's threat while trailing by one score.
🏈 Drive of the Game
BUF 9-play, 65-yard drive (5:01) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:18). BUF's win probability moved from 56.1% to 83.3% — a 27.2 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
BUF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.177): (10:20) 16-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.
PE Key play (WPA +0.158): (7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key play (WPA -0.057): (10:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 18-E.Moore (23-J.Jones).
📈 Game Flow
A back-and-forth battle with 3 lead changes kept both teams in contention throughout. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who gained 28.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 23.3 percentage points, caused by a interception.
✅ Why BUF Won
BUF won 31-21 on the strength of 5 key factors: • BUF generated +15.8 EPA (+0.277 per play) vs MIA's +3.2 EPA (+0.054 per play) • BUF passing EPA: +10.7 vs MIA: +0.1 • BUF had 3 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs MIA's 0.
❌ What Went Wrong for MIA
MIA lost 21-31. What went wrong: • MIA's defense allowed BUF to score on 5/9 drives (56%) • MIA went three-and-out 4 times, failing to sustain drives • MIA had only 0 explosive plays (20+ yards) vs BUF's 3.
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: BUF 9-play, 65-yard drive (5:01) ending in touchdown (Q4, 12:18). The moment that decided it: T.Tagovailoa intercepted (Q4, 3:06).
Final score: BUF 31-21.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.