LA pull away from TEN 33-19
LA pulled away from TEN 33-19. LA generated +19.6 EPA (+0.343 per play) vs TEN's -7.9 EPA (-0.124 per play). The defining moment: P.Nacua 45-yard rushing TD (Q1, 53:48).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: P.Nacua 45-yard rushing TD (Q1, 53:48) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: LA generated +19.6 EPA (+0.343 per play) vs TEN's -7.9 EPA (-0.124 per play) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: TEN failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) why loser lost
LA pulled away from TEN 33-19. LA generated +19.6 EPA (+0.343 per play) vs TEN's -7.9 EPA (-0.124 per play).
The defining moment: P.Nacua 45-yard rushing TD (Q1, 53:48).
⚡ The Turning Point
P.Nacua 45-yard rushing TD (Q1, 53:48). LA's win probability jumped from 48.7% to 67.9% — a 19.2 percentage point swing.
Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while tied game.
🏈 Drive of the Game
LA 4-play, 69-yard drive (2:15) ending in touchdown (Q3, 03:32). LA's win probability moved from 36.5% to 64.3% — a 27.8 percentage point shift over 4 plays.
LA took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.107): (2:48) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-P.Nacua to TEN 23 for 22 yards (21-R.McCreary).
Key play (WPA +0.071): (1:21) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at TEN 1 for 7 yards (29-J.Brownlee). L Key play (WPA +0.064): (3:27) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at TEN 45 for 24 yards (25-X.Woods).
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to TEN, who gained 26.9 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 19.2 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.
✅ Why LA Won
LA won 33-19 on the strength of 5 key factors: • LA generated +19.6 EPA (+0.343 per play) vs TEN's -7.9 EPA (-0.124 per play) • LA passing EPA: +9.8 vs TEN: -6.7 • LA rushing EPA: +9.8 vs TEN: -1.2.
❌ What Went Wrong for TEN
TEN lost 19-33. What went wrong: • TEN failed on 9/15 third downs (40% conversion rate) • TEN allowed 5 sacks • TEN's defense allowed LA to score on 6/11 drives (55%).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: LA 4-play, 69-yard drive (2:15) ending in touchdown (Q3, 03:32). The moment that decided it: P.Nacua 45-yard rushing TD (Q1, 53:48).
Final score: LA 33-19.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.