DEN survive NYJ challenge, win 13-11
DEN edged NYJ 13-11. DEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs NYJ's 0/0 (0%). The defining moment: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:14).
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:14) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: DEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs NYJ's 0/0 (0%) why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: NYJ failed on 13/15 third downs (13% conversion rate) why loser lost
DEN edged NYJ 13-11. DEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs NYJ's 0/0 (0%).
The defining moment: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:14).
⚡ The Turning Point
NYJ fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:14). NYJ's win probability dropped from 35.1% to 5.2% — a 29.9 percentage point swing.
Ended the drive and handed field position to DEN while trailing by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
DEN 9-play, 69-yard drive (4:55) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:55). DEN's win probability moved from 34.3% to 55.3% — a 21.0 percentage point shift over 9 plays.
DEN took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.121): (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 1-E.Engram pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (44-J.Sher Key play (WPA +0.079): (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Key play (WPA +0.063): (:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to NYJ 16 for 16 yards (44-J.Sherw.
📈 Game Flow
A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to DEN, who lost 48.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 29.9 percentage points, caused by a sack.
✅ Why DEN Won
DEN won 13-11 on the strength of 5 key factors: • DEN scored on 2/2 red zone trips (100%) vs NYJ's 0/0 (0%) • DEN passing EPA: +0.3 vs NYJ: -20.7 • DEN generated 9 sacks and 11 QB hits vs NYJ's 1 sacks and 3 QB hits.
❌ What Went Wrong for NYJ
NYJ lost 11-13. What went wrong: • NYJ failed on 13/15 third downs (13% conversion rate) • NYJ allowed 9 sacks • NYJ generated -24.0 EPA (-0.421 per play).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: DEN 9-play, 69-yard drive (4:55) ending in touchdown (Q1, 04:55). The moment that decided it: NYJ fails on 4th down (Q4, 1:14).
Final score: DEN 13-11.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.