Skip to content
Sportami home
NFL 2025 Season Week 15

BUF hold off NE 35-31

BUF held off NE 35-31. BUF passing EPA: +9.4 vs NE: -3.4. The defining moment: T.Henderson 65-yard rushing TD (Q4, 10:03).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: T.Henderson 65-yard rushing TD (Q4, 10:03) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: BUF passing EPA: +9.4 vs NE: -3.4 why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: NE's defense allowed BUF to score on 5/10 drives (50%) why loser lost

BUF held off NE 35-31. BUF passing EPA: +9.4 vs NE: -3.4.

The defining moment: T.Henderson 65-yard rushing TD (Q4, 10:03).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

T.Henderson 65-yard rushing TD (Q4, 10:03). NE's win probability jumped from 37.7% to 65.0% — a 27.3 percentage point swing.

Changed the scoreboard and shifted control while trailing by one score.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

BUF 13-play, 91-yard drive (6:27) ending in touchdown (Q3, 01:30). BUF's win probability moved from 34.6% to 64.3% — a 29.8 percentage point shift over 13 plays.

BUF took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.230): (11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones).

Penal Key play (WPA +0.183): (10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key play (WPA -0.075): (12:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-Ty.Johnson to NE 45 for -1 yards (51-J.Gibbens, .

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

A competitive game with 5 significant momentum shifts provided sustained tension. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BUF, who lost 36.1 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 27.3 percentage points, caused by a touchdown.

momentum timeline

✅ Why BUF Won

BUF won 35-31 on the strength of 4 key factors: • BUF passing EPA: +9.4 vs NE: -3.4 • BUF had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs NE's -1 • BUF converted 8/13 third downs (62%) vs NE's 5/10 (50%).

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for NE

NE lost 31-35. What went wrong: • NE's defense allowed BUF to score on 5/10 drives (50%) • NE allowed 3 sacks • NE committed 1 turnover (1 INT, 0 fumbles lost).

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: BUF 13-play, 91-yard drive (6:27) ending in touchdown (Q3, 01:30). The moment that decided it: T.Henderson 65-yard rushing TD (Q4, 10:03).

Final score: BUF 35-31.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

BUF Play #3358 Drive #14 passing advantage turnover margin third down efficiency defensive leakage pressure allowed turnovers committed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.