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NFL 2025 Season Week 18

PIT outlast BAL 26-24 in back-and-forth battle

PIT edged BAL 26-24. PIT scored on 3/4 red zone trips (75%) vs BAL's 0/0 (0%). The defining moment: BAL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:02).

By Sportami Editorial

Key Takeaways

  • ⚡
    Turning point: BAL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:02) turning point
  • ✅
    Key advantage: PIT scored on 3/4 red zone trips (75%) vs BAL's 0/0 (0%) why winner won
  • ❌
    Key failure: BAL failed on 9/13 third downs (31% conversion rate) why loser lost
  • ▸
    Game character: volatile contest with 4 lead changes momentum timeline

PIT edged BAL 26-24. PIT scored on 3/4 red zone trips (75%) vs BAL's 0/0 (0%).

The defining moment: BAL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:02).

why winner won turning point momentum timeline

⚡ The Turning Point

BAL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:02). BAL's win probability dropped from 54.4% to 0.0% — a 54.4 percentage point swing.

Squandered a scoring opportunity while trailing by a field goal.

turning point

🏈 Drive of the Game

BAL 3-play, 73-yard drive (1:29) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:49). BAL's win probability moved from 32.0% to 76.2% — a 44.2 percentage point shift over 3 plays.

BAL took the lead for the first time on this drive. Key play (WPA +0.454): (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Penalty on PIT-2.

drive of game

📈 Game Flow

This was a volatile contest with 4 lead changes and 5 significant momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BAL, who lost 29.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.

The largest single swing was 54.4 percentage points, caused by a missed field goal.

momentum timeline

✅ Why PIT Won

PIT won 26-24 on the strength of 3 key factors: • PIT scored on 3/4 red zone trips (75%) vs BAL's 0/0 (0%) • PIT converted 9/16 third downs (56%) vs BAL's 4/13 (31%) • PIT had a +1 turnover margin (1 forced, 0 committed) vs BAL's -1.

why winner won

❌ What Went Wrong for BAL

BAL lost 24-26. What went wrong: • BAL failed on 9/13 third downs (31% conversion rate) • BAL's defense allowed PIT to score on 5/10 drives (50%) • BAL allowed 3 sacks.

why loser lost

🏁 The Bottom Line

The drive that defined the game: BAL 3-play, 73-yard drive (1:29) ending in touchdown (Q4, 03:49). The moment that decided it: BAL 44-yard field goal missed (Q4, 0:02).

Final score: PIT 26-24.

why winner won turning point drive of game

Evidence Sources

PIT Play #4139 Drive #18 red zone efficiency third down efficiency turnover margin third down failures defensive leakage pressure allowed

Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.