BAL rout MIA 28-6
BAL dominated MIA 28-6. BAL had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -3.
Key Takeaways
- ⚡ Turning point: T.Tagovailoa fumble lost (Q1, 54:46) turning point
- ✅ Key advantage: BAL had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -3 why winner won
- ❌ Key failure: MIA failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) why loser lost
BAL dominated MIA 28-6. BAL had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -3.
⚡ The Turning Point
T.Tagovailoa fumble lost (Q1, 54:46). MIA's win probability dropped from 60.1% to 44.5% — a 15.7 percentage point swing.
Turnover gave BAL possession while leading by a field goal.
🏈 Drive of the Game
BAL 11-play, 68-yard drive (6:51) ending in touchdown (Q3, 15:00). BAL's win probability moved from 78.8% to 91.5% — a 12.7 percentage point shift over 11 plays.
BAL extended their lead with a scoring drive.
📈 Game Flow
A steady contest without dramatic momentum swings. The longest sustained momentum belonged to BAL, who lost 34.2 percentage points of win probability during that stretch.
The largest single swing was 15.7 percentage points, caused by a fumble.
✅ Why BAL Won
BAL won 28-6 on the strength of 5 key factors: • BAL had a +3 turnover margin (3 forced, 0 committed) vs MIA's -3 • BAL generated +11.5 EPA (+0.212 per play) vs MIA's -12.2 EPA (-0.200 per play) • BAL scored on 3/3 red zone trips (100%) vs MIA's 0/3 (0%).
❌ What Went Wrong for MIA
MIA lost 6-28. What went wrong: • MIA failed on 10/12 third downs (17% conversion rate) • MIA committed 3 turnovers (1 INT, 2 fumbles lost) • MIA failed to score on 3 of 3 red zone trips (0% scoring rate).
🏁 The Bottom Line
The drive that defined the game: BAL 11-play, 68-yard drive (6:51) ending in touchdown (Q3, 15:00). The moment that decided it: T.Tagovailoa fumble lost (Q1, 54:46).
Final score: BAL 28-6.
Evidence Sources
Every claim is traced to play-by-play evidence from official NFL data. Powered by Sportami Reason Engine v1.0.